Sunday, January 30, 2011
Market view @ 1/30/2011
This is very real what's going on in Egypt as we watch from our perches here in the good 'ol USofA.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThvBJMzmSZI
I think the buzzword this week from the talking heads will be contagion. However, since the Euro is not heavily involved like it was with Greece we may not see outright plunging type action as we did on May 6,2010 in the US indices.
Here is the note I sent today :
At minimum I would think a 5% pullback to test the last break out buy pt on SPY 123.05 (cup w handle bp) and the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of 122.88 would be in order. This unrest in the middle east serves to further stoke inflationary fears and geopolitical angst.
The action in the futures pit was very decisive to the downside about 19min after the open. 3.235m contracts traded which is very heavy volume. We closed 1270.50 down 25.25 points on the day or 1.95%. Most notable this past week was the actions of GS in the pit. Goldman started selling earlier in the week. They were a scale up seller pretty much from 1293 all the way to the breaking point of 1299.50. They sold 100 contracts (the big ones) every .50 (half pt.) Most notably is that they didn't cover any of significance. They covered a 100 at 1281, but nothing else. And what really got me was in the last minute of trading (3:14pm ... futures close 15min after stocks) they came in and sold 500 big ones into the bell. When they did this so did JPM and a few others and they closed it on it's lows of the day 1270.50. Bearish action.
However, after a big down day one would be expecting to see a small range consolidation day, but this may not be the case either as Egypt hasn't resolved anything this weekend. A few of my friends that trade the /ES are expecting consolidation monday, small up day tuesday, and then selling to resume on wednesday. Only the market knows for sure which path it's gonna take, but enough retail money came into the market in January that a pullback / shakeout is in order.
For now it seems like a correction is underway. Which in this day and age could last for just a few days, or a few weeks. Just be on your toes and watch closely the action in the market leading stocks ie: LEADERS.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThvBJMzmSZI
I think the buzzword this week from the talking heads will be contagion. However, since the Euro is not heavily involved like it was with Greece we may not see outright plunging type action as we did on May 6,2010 in the US indices.
Here is the note I sent today :
At minimum I would think a 5% pullback to test the last break out buy pt on SPY 123.05 (cup w handle bp) and the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of 122.88 would be in order. This unrest in the middle east serves to further stoke inflationary fears and geopolitical angst.
The action in the futures pit was very decisive to the downside about 19min after the open. 3.235m contracts traded which is very heavy volume. We closed 1270.50 down 25.25 points on the day or 1.95%. Most notable this past week was the actions of GS in the pit. Goldman started selling earlier in the week. They were a scale up seller pretty much from 1293 all the way to the breaking point of 1299.50. They sold 100 contracts (the big ones) every .50 (half pt.) Most notably is that they didn't cover any of significance. They covered a 100 at 1281, but nothing else. And what really got me was in the last minute of trading (3:14pm ... futures close 15min after stocks) they came in and sold 500 big ones into the bell. When they did this so did JPM and a few others and they closed it on it's lows of the day 1270.50. Bearish action.
However, after a big down day one would be expecting to see a small range consolidation day, but this may not be the case either as Egypt hasn't resolved anything this weekend. A few of my friends that trade the /ES are expecting consolidation monday, small up day tuesday, and then selling to resume on wednesday. Only the market knows for sure which path it's gonna take, but enough retail money came into the market in January that a pullback / shakeout is in order.
For now it seems like a correction is underway. Which in this day and age could last for just a few days, or a few weeks. Just be on your toes and watch closely the action in the market leading stocks ie: LEADERS.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
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