Monday, September 14, 2009

UYG pattern

I've got the levels on the UYG inverted H&S. The ultimate load up zone is 4.71-5.13 on this pattern. That would be a retest of the neckline/breakout. You know which week is the head obviously (3/1.) I'm determining my neckline using the weeks of 1/11 and 8/2. The high of 5.13 on 1/11 and the low on 8/2 of 4.71. That's the load up zone. I messed up not getting aggressive in those 3's the week of 7/5, because that was the completion of the Right shoulder on this larger H&S on the weekly chart. The left shoulder was the week of 11/16/08 low of 3.22. We actually already had a smaller reverse H&S within the one we're retesting the breakout on now. Is that a one off? A smaller reverse H&S within a larger reverse H&S? The sheer idea of that results in nothing more than wildly bullish thoughts dancing across my horns! The only overhead moving average resistance now rests in the 86dma on weekly at 14.38. What is more, the moving average support beneath us ties directly into my neckline range assumption.

The current levels are :
9dma = 5.14 } .01 above the high end of the range
20dma = 4.81 } .10 above the low end of the range
50dma = 4.94 } mid point of the range

With this we are buying an option (a swap / hence the double beta) on some of the most active names in the market. And the most controversial in some respects. More fuel for the fire.http://www.proshares.com/funds/uyg.html?Daily%20Holdings

Even if there is a H&S in this upper channel on the daily right now. It doesn't matter. Why? Because the measured move down falls right into my neckline/retest/support zone.