SmartHeat (HEAT)

My buy in on HEAT @ 12.25 on 11/24/09 has started to move in the right direction. With an all time high of 15.10 today along with a closing high of 14.95, HEAT looks poised to go higher yet still. Big volume came pouring into the name this afternoon with over 1.5m shares being transacted in the 1pm to 2pm cst time frame. This speaks to institutions piling in. They want to take this one higher, but they will most certainly shake the trees of weak hands along the way. So buying right is the key, as to not get shook out.

Our first buy was nothing more than a retracement level from the Oct lows to the most recent highs (post impressive eps w/ strong forward guidance.) At the time that high was 14.50. The 38.2% level from that was 12.25. That's where I got in. As of today we're up 23% on that purchase. So what now?

Well, we HOLD, and we buy more on the dips! According to IBD (to which I subscribe) when you buy properly, and your stock then goes up 20-25% in the first two weeks of you owning it. You sit tight, and give it another 8 weeks to see what it will do. HEAT's volume was up 462% today in this strong move. However, because it was sub $15most of the day it didn't show up in IBD's stocks on the move screen. It will soon though. The trend is heading for higher prices. Of course you always have your 7% stop in under your purchase price just in case it reverses. Managing risk always comes first! However, you never want to cut a winner like this loose too early, so you have to let it "breath."

And keeping with the theme of letting your winners run; I want to pyramid up in this trade. To do that I will most certainly be using major moving averages to determine support levels. However, the best method for buying right again here would be to use the Fibonacci levels again. With today's 15.10 high our fib levels move up again. I'm measuring from October's low as to capture the post earnings renewed interest in the stock.

So my adds could come at any of these new levels:
23.6% line = $13.53
38.2% line = $12.59
50.0% line = 11.83
Other levels to pay attention to would be the 9ema, 20ema, and 50sma. All of those are conveniently spread out by a dollar each here. 13.15 , 12.15, and 11.14 are where those averages were at after today's close.

All this said, if the stock reverses lower on increased volume, and starts to close in on my stop. I'm out. While I love HEAT now. I'm not in love with it if you catch my drift! Let the winners ride, and kiss the losers bye bye!