Scanned Notes : 12/1

Energy stocks are showing strength with many offering fresh set ups such as APA.

Scanned Notes : 11/28

Scanned Notes : 11/23

Little late on these as they include focus stocks going into 11/23, but also includes notes for 11/24 and beyond.

Scanned Notes 11/22/10

Coal stocks have been breaking out, and they could continue to offer gains to those who buy correctly. Many levels of support / resistance can be found in my notes. IBD 100 stocks constitute the remainder of the notes. This is typical of my notes after a weekend break.

New Feature : Scanned Notes

I went through IBD's Stocks On The Move screen and made some simple notes for potential buy points.

Shared Items Section : Look To The Right >>>>

Anyone following this blog by it's posts only is missing what I think is one of the most valuable assets that is part of site. The shared items section that appears on the right hand column of this blog is a way for you to take advantage of my skimming and reading of the headlines out there. As you can see below I track a lot of financial/ trading sites. While I do this primarily for myself; the Google reader does allow for me to simply click the shared items button when something I read is deemed actionable/ worthy of attention by myself. This then goes instantly into the shared items on the right. So while I spend hours reading over all this stuff you can take advantage of this by simply checking the shared items section of this blog daily. The atom feed associated with the shared items section can also be added to your rss feeds for simplicity and efficiency.


From your 130 subscriptions, over the last 30 days you read 19,032 items, clicked 294 items, starred 4 items, shared 75 items, and emailed 0 items.
Since November 1, 2009 you have read a total of 300,000+ items.


I am also active on Twitter which is also linked on the right hand side of this blog as well. While I don't tweet everyday the frequency of tweets to blog posts is astronomically higher in 2010. The reason for this : Efficiency. I spend my days trading and all of my real time market commentary takes place in the chat room at www.chartpattern.com under the moniker "Spm." By the time the trading day is over I'm pouring over charts, talking with other traders real time, reading my rss feeds (to which the shared items are generated from), and reading Investor's Business Daily while going over more charts. By the time this is all done I don't have time to play the role of a journalist. Regardless of that there is still some worthy information to be had within the halls of the TCM, LLC blog.

So for those that think the TCM, LLC blog has been idle this year due to no new posts, you had better look again. Wishing all of you text book chart pattern set ups, ideal buy points, and surging volume!

Where You Want To Be : PTJ Theory to Trading

Using proper buy points confirmed with price and surging volume is the only way to be when buying stocks long. However, when buy points fail and are then confirmed with selling volume; stops are deployed instantly. The absolute greatest traders understand that, and that is why they consistently win overtime. Paul Tudor Jones II is one of those great traders, and a native Memphian as well. His elusive Trader video has been watched by myself more than is required. It's a very inspiring video for a guy like me that has to take the same decisive actions and do them quickly on a daily basis. Inter personally it resonates with me even more because his age in the video is my current age. There should be no analog to that I don't think! (Inside joke if you've seen Trader.) Anyway, I've plucked the pearls of wisdom and put them into my notes as the PTJ Theory. And here it is :

Where You Want To Be:

1. Always in Control



2. Never Wishing



3. Always Trading



4. And always, first and foremost, protecting your ass!

Focus on the money/capital. It's always at risk in any single investment. 90% of your time spent on that is key. As was said in his Market Wizards interview, "Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have."

Also, it's gotta hurt when you lose. If it doesn't there's a disconnect between you and the capital. And likewise one must have a quiet confidence about themselves when winning. The only reassurance that is ever needed lies within our P&L line. Thinking about that and all your positions relative to the previous session's close forces you to stay in the NOW. In turn this keeps you in control. Staying humble and very focused on current price action/ chart patterns with the appropriate buy (buy stop)/sell (sell stop) rules in place can only lead one closer to market success.

Quotes from the movie : "Quote me, quote me, quote me!!! What's the market!??! Second to that is, "And tell him do not $&%* around I want to buy 'em! 85-90? Offer 90 for 3000 FILL or KILL!!!" There's also a turkey that thinks he's a dog. That in and of itself is classic. However, one can't forget about the mystical powers of the charity auction purchased Bruce Willis white high top Reebok's; that are good for generating a market bounce of 30 dow points! When worn properly of course!

Fill or Kill!!!

$IMAX: 3 Weeks Tight Pattern

I applied a Fibonacci retracement to the $IMAX monthly chart. Start point was 29.43 the high in 8/2000, and the low point occurred at .55 in 9/2001. It has essentially trended higher ever sense. Sans a few corrective waves.

Currently it just ripped through the 38.2% fib level of 11.53. Closed above it, and then it did a 3 weeks tight pattern that it has currently moved out of with volume as of today. 13.18 was the buy point in the pattern. 50% level is up at 14.95. I think that's a fair target for now. Piper's target is 16.

A 20% move from my 13.18 buy point would equate to 15.81. The 61.8% level sits up at 18.37 just in case things get real heated. 15 seems fair for now though. Today's close puts it 4.5% above the 13.18 buy point. It can be bought up to 13.83 from the buy point, or 5%.

***UPDATE : I sold this at 13.70 Thursday due to light volume, and general market weakness. 3.6% profit. I'll take it. If it holds 13.18 and can't break it on volume I will re enter. I don't want my views of the "valuation" to get in the way of a potential 3 weeks tight break out. We'll let the market be the final arbiter of what happens. Watch that 13.18 level.

TCM, LLC Tweeting Levels and Patterns Intraday

Getting more active on Twitter these days, and finding micro blogging to be a much simpler way to convey the trade. In that spirit I'm only trying to use it for actionable levels in the equities I'm following, or trading in during the day. The TCM,LLC blog will continue to play it's role as the repose of my more long winded market prose.

There is a handy Twitter tool embedded to the right that the tweets are sent to as they are made. You can follow me by clicking the follow link on this page, or you can go there and find me under TCMLLC.

Thanks, and a very warm welcome to all the new readers.

SmartHeat (HEAT)

My buy in on HEAT @ 12.25 on 11/24/09 has started to move in the right direction. With an all time high of 15.10 today along with a closing high of 14.95, HEAT looks poised to go higher yet still. Big volume came pouring into the name this afternoon with over 1.5m shares being transacted in the 1pm to 2pm cst time frame. This speaks to institutions piling in. They want to take this one higher, but they will most certainly shake the trees of weak hands along the way. So buying right is the key, as to not get shook out.

Our first buy was nothing more than a retracement level from the Oct lows to the most recent highs (post impressive eps w/ strong forward guidance.) At the time that high was 14.50. The 38.2% level from that was 12.25. That's where I got in. As of today we're up 23% on that purchase. So what now?

Well, we HOLD, and we buy more on the dips! According to IBD (to which I subscribe) when you buy properly, and your stock then goes up 20-25% in the first two weeks of you owning it. You sit tight, and give it another 8 weeks to see what it will do. HEAT's volume was up 462% today in this strong move. However, because it was sub $15most of the day it didn't show up in IBD's stocks on the move screen. It will soon though. The trend is heading for higher prices. Of course you always have your 7% stop in under your purchase price just in case it reverses. Managing risk always comes first! However, you never want to cut a winner like this loose too early, so you have to let it "breath."

And keeping with the theme of letting your winners run; I want to pyramid up in this trade. To do that I will most certainly be using major moving averages to determine support levels. However, the best method for buying right again here would be to use the Fibonacci levels again. With today's 15.10 high our fib levels move up again. I'm measuring from October's low as to capture the post earnings renewed interest in the stock.

So my adds could come at any of these new levels:
23.6% line = $13.53
38.2% line = $12.59
50.0% line = 11.83
Other levels to pay attention to would be the 9ema, 20ema, and 50sma. All of those are conveniently spread out by a dollar each here. 13.15 , 12.15, and 11.14 are where those averages were at after today's close.

All this said, if the stock reverses lower on increased volume, and starts to close in on my stop. I'm out. While I love HEAT now. I'm not in love with it if you catch my drift! Let the winners ride, and kiss the losers bye bye!