Sent the note below to the respected trend follower Easan Katir this evening. His work on the 10/240mac I speak about often. Definite recommended reading if you want to understand what I'm talking about when I mention 10/240mac.
http://www.easankatir.com/resources/articles/articlesbyeasan/Superior_Returns_from_Average_Indicators.shtml
10ma is dark blue and the 240ma is red on the following charts :
QQQ
http://screencast.com/t/OSSo76XMMz
TQQQ
http://screencast.com/t/Wuq5bn17Nq
QLD
http://screencast.com/t/5aFjLKI3ihH
Mr. Katir very interesting stuff here. QQQ, TQQQ, QLD never had the negative 10/240mac. They are below the 240ma which is not ideal, but according to the rules there is no SELL until you get the cross over. If markets are going to bounce with any significance I think these could LEAD much like they did in Sep 2010. QQQ, TQQQ, QLD 240ma lines up with the 50% retrace from the recent waterfall. Could be a nice grind higher, or a fast snap back to those levels if not higher. I like these best vs SPY, DIA, IWM and all their juiced up beta pairs because they all had negative 10/240mac. Thesis is : that which led us shall continue to lead. Ie: AAPL, BIDU, and all those other NASDAQ leaders.
Thoughts?
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Monday, August 1, 2011
ARCO - LEADER Characteristics On This Ipo
I picked up ARCO originally at 21.35 (given out real time on the Twitter feed to the right) based on some Ipo techniques that I've been deploying rather successfully this year. More to come on those in a future post. ARCO however is a winner, and looking to become a leader as it's earnings report to me has the scent of the Eau de toilette: CANSLIM via this writer's guru Mr. William J. O'neil founder of Investor's Business Daily. I realize these earnings are EBITA and if you listen to Steve Wynn he would suggest to you you're crazy forecasting off of unaudited EBITA, but hey, we're chart guys here. ARCO ranks a 98 composite in the 7th best industry group of the 197 tracked. Now it's relative strength needs to pick up to become a real LEADER. 24.27 was a buy point hit today, and there is an additional new high buy point at 26.05 that would need 40% above average volume to be buyable. The chart below applies some of my Ipo techniques in order to come up with a Fibonacci extension target as well as support / resistance areas that we are navigating presently. I want to see 23.82 flip to support now. There's a confluence zone between my original buy point of 21.35 and the 50% retracement of 21.46. I see new highs coming in this one if the overall market conditions would improve. On the sponsorship quotient of the CANSLIM formula Fido aka Fidelity is a 9% owner of ARCO across 9 of it's funds.
http://screencast.com/t/J2Yc9eOsRGa
"5:04PM Arcos Dorados beats by $0.04, beats on revs, raises FY11 revenue growth guidance, reaffirms FY11 EPS growth guidance (ARCO) 23.54 +0.10 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.07 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.03; revenues rose 28.7% year/year to $888.5 mln vs the $853.3 mln consensus. Based on stronger than forecasted year-to-date results and the current outlook for operations and currencies for the remainder of 2011, Arcos Dorados has modified its outlook for the full-year 2011. The company now expects year-over-year consolidated revenue growth of 22-24%, up from prior expectation of 15-17%, and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 18-20%. Additionally, the company estimates an increase in net income of 35-45% in 2011." from briefing.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Arcos-Dorados-Reports-Second-bw-867473074.html?x=0&.v=1
http://screencast.com/t/J2Yc9eOsRGa
"5:04PM Arcos Dorados beats by $0.04, beats on revs, raises FY11 revenue growth guidance, reaffirms FY11 EPS growth guidance (ARCO) 23.54 +0.10 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.07 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.03; revenues rose 28.7% year/year to $888.5 mln vs the $853.3 mln consensus. Based on stronger than forecasted year-to-date results and the current outlook for operations and currencies for the remainder of 2011, Arcos Dorados has modified its outlook for the full-year 2011. The company now expects year-over-year consolidated revenue growth of 22-24%, up from prior expectation of 15-17%, and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 18-20%. Additionally, the company estimates an increase in net income of 35-45% in 2011." from briefing.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Arcos-Dorados-Reports-Second-bw-867473074.html?x=0&.v=1
Friday, July 1, 2011
Patriotic Business Optimism by William J. O'neil
"This country is so strong and has got so much freedom that there are entrepreneurs, and they are out there, and they don't go away no matter who's in Washington. So Washington can screw it up, and the market will go up anyway because you've got AAPLs all over the place. There's probably 20 to 30 of them that have got a unique product that's really selling and making money." - William J. O'neil 2/18/2011 interview with Steve Crowley on American Scene. Interview can be found at www.investors.com in the IBDtv section under the tab for William O'neil interviews.
And the picture below is of me in 5th grade hitting a home run in my patriotic Red, White, and Blue colors! There's an analogy to be made with the market and staying focused as it relates to the knuckle heads playing in the dirt on the losing team seen in the back ground (people focused on the noise,) and the player laser focused at the plate waiting on the fat pitch (staying focused on the charts.)
Just stay on your toes and ALWAYS BE READY!
And the picture below is of me in 5th grade hitting a home run in my patriotic Red, White, and Blue colors! There's an analogy to be made with the market and staying focused as it relates to the knuckle heads playing in the dirt on the losing team seen in the back ground (people focused on the noise,) and the player laser focused at the plate waiting on the fat pitch (staying focused on the charts.)
Just stay on your toes and ALWAYS BE READY!
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
CMG's 3rd Century Mark : Livermore Edition
'Ol J.L. would probably have something really clever & snappy to say about CMG and it's attack on the 300 level today. Unfortunately he's not around to speak on it, but I did get this interesting note with my burrito bowl tonight.
Profile of Market Leader : CMG - weekly chart
http://screencast.com/t/UYcEAhMNZL
Daily volume on this break of 300 was acceptable. Had it been closer to 300 prior to the start of the day the move through 300 would've been stronger I think. Time will tell if CMG wants to exist above 300. Be quick to act if this level doesn't hold. And also note a very sharp rise up and out of the ascending upper trend line may trigger a sell signal. So best you be on your toes!
Monday, June 13, 2011
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Pride : Never Argue With The Market
"I never try to predict or anticipate. I only try to react to what the market is telling me by its
behavior."
"Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it
overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book
and to the soul."
"There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side."
"…the market will often go contrary to what speculators have predicted. At these times, successful
speculators must abandon their predictions and follow the action of the market. Prudent
speculators never argue with the tape. Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are."
"Markets are never wrong, opinions are."
"A prudent speculator never argues with the tape."
- Jesse Livermore
Pride : Never argue with the market.
behavior."
"Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it
overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book
and to the soul."
"There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side."
"…the market will often go contrary to what speculators have predicted. At these times, successful
speculators must abandon their predictions and follow the action of the market. Prudent
speculators never argue with the tape. Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are."
"Markets are never wrong, opinions are."
"A prudent speculator never argues with the tape."
- Jesse Livermore
Pride : Never argue with the market.
Enemy Of The Speculator : Uncontrolled Basic Emotions
"I believe that uncontrolled basic emotions are the true and deadly enemy of the speculator;
that hope, fear, and greed are always present, sitting on the edge of the psyche, waiting on
the sidelines, waiting to jump into the action, plow into the game."
"Greed, fear, impatience, and hope will all fight for mental dominance over the speculator."
"The speculator’s deadly enemies are: Ignorance, greed, fear and hope. All the statue books in the
world and all the rule books on all the Exchanges of the earth cannot eliminate these from the
human animal."
"Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to."
- Jesse Livermore
More on Fear & Greed from MarketSmith's W. Scott O'neil.
that hope, fear, and greed are always present, sitting on the edge of the psyche, waiting on
the sidelines, waiting to jump into the action, plow into the game."
"Greed, fear, impatience, and hope will all fight for mental dominance over the speculator."
"The speculator’s deadly enemies are: Ignorance, greed, fear and hope. All the statue books in the
world and all the rule books on all the Exchanges of the earth cannot eliminate these from the
human animal."
"Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to."
- Jesse Livermore
More on Fear & Greed from MarketSmith's W. Scott O'neil.
Saturday, June 4, 2011
The Unsuccessful Investor Is Best Friends With Hope
"The unsuccessful investor is best friends with hope, and hope skips along life’s path hand in hand
with greed when it comes to the stock market. Once a stock trade is entered, hope springs to life. It
is human nature to be positive, to hope for the best. Hope is an important survival technique. But
hope, like its stock market cousin’s ignorance, greed, and fear, distorts reason. See the stock
market only deals in facts, in reality, in reason, and the stock market is never wrong. Traders are
wrong. Like the spinning of a roulette wheel, the little black ball tells the final outcome, not greed,
fear or hope. The result is objective and final, with no appeal."
"When the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day - and you
lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your
way, you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit and you get out - too
soon. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts."
- Jesse Livermore
W. Scott O'neil (son of William J. O'neil) goes over the investing pyschology of Hope and it's perils.
with greed when it comes to the stock market. Once a stock trade is entered, hope springs to life. It
is human nature to be positive, to hope for the best. Hope is an important survival technique. But
hope, like its stock market cousin’s ignorance, greed, and fear, distorts reason. See the stock
market only deals in facts, in reality, in reason, and the stock market is never wrong. Traders are
wrong. Like the spinning of a roulette wheel, the little black ball tells the final outcome, not greed,
fear or hope. The result is objective and final, with no appeal."
"When the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day - and you
lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your
way, you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit and you get out - too
soon. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts."
- Jesse Livermore
W. Scott O'neil (son of William J. O'neil) goes over the investing pyschology of Hope and it's perils.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Royal says AZO is no fire plug!
Let's just say I disagreed with Royal as he was wildly bullish on AZO earlier in the month. AZO is a market leader he said, but again I let general market sentiment cloud my judgement on whether or not the run in AZO was over. Royal again kindly pointed out to me that Eddie Lampert is one tough dude on the trading desk, and his ability to jam the shorts in AZO could prove to be deadly for those trying to pick the top. I took this wisdom to heart.AZO settled out at ALL TIME highs today.
http://screencast.com/t/kEyPebhw
AZO beat expectations today :
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000023365
Monday, May 9, 2011
"A Very Worthy Hero" ~ Ode to Tom Lee
I had to jump over a little bit of water to get the shot. That 'ol River she's a flowin'!
http://tomleeamemphishero.webs.com/history.htm
I didn't realize this at the time, but when this photo of me in front of the Tom Lee monument was being made it was also the 86th anniversary of that fateful day! May 8, 1925 is when Tom Lee pulled 32 people out of the Mississippi River and took them to shore in his motorized boat 'Zev.' Saving their lives. Even crazier was this photo was taken at sunset just about the time that Tom Lee noticed the M. E. Norman sinking downriver at the Cow Island Bend. What started out being a joke photo has really turned into something special for me, and for my understanding of this very heroic event, and selfless man.
~"Lee acted quickly, calmly and with no regard for his own safety, continuing to search after night fell."
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