Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Brazilian Watchlist

Seems that everyone wants to emphasize the "B" in BRIC again as Brazil has received the 2016 bid for the Olympics. Well that's fine, so long as you realize it has ran quite a bit already. And the growth of Brazil is not a new market theme. All that said here's my list :
  • EWZ - broad market index etf
  • BRF - small cap index
  • BZF - real currency etf
  • PBR - oil and gas
  • GGB - steel (although half of their output is US)
  • SID - steel (concentrated in Brazil)
  • MELI - internet
  • CZZ - agriculture / sugar / ethanol
  • BBD - finance/banking 3160 branches
  • ITUB - finance/banking 4895 branches
  • STD - finance/banking 80% owner of BSBR
  • BSBR - $8B ipo starting trading tomorrow. fair value $13 per morningstar
  • CBD - grocery stores
  • GFA - building/ residential & commercial with operations in 18 states
  • ERJ - aerospace
  • VIV - telecom
  • AMX - telecom - this is a Mexican telco play as well, but they are large here too.
  • GOL - transports - airlines

This list may expand and contract as different plays emerge. For the moment the most viable play is the BRF, and the financial names. BRF is more heavily weighted in consumer discretionary names. EWZ is more energy/finance related. Looking to deconstruct them both soon to see who the outperfomers are.