TCM Notes : 10/7/09

• Despite a higher volume gain today IBD still has the "uptrend under pressure" status in the Big Picture column today. The level I'm keying in on for refreshed upside momentum is 105.99 in the SPY. This was the low seen on the 9/23 outside reversal day. Getting back above that level could trigger many buy stops in the market that would naturally send the index higher. There is still a 50% retracement up around the 1121 level that is a viable target. The type of action we're seeing as far as market breadth is concerned is impressive. One day the XLF will lead the charge. Another day will see the XLE lead the charge. Rotational leadership in my eyes is very healthy, and lends itself to refreshing momentum on these shallow pullbacks. Still plenty of major moving average support beneath this market. And with the debasement of the dollar one should be very cautious about holding a short bias for too long in this market.
• BSBR completed it's $8B ipo. Starts trading today. Careful not to chase this one. Fair value according to many is $13. Anything over that is nothing more than trading demand.
• The 50ma hooking upward in the SPY weekly chart is something that should be made a note of. Last time this happened was in 2003. The golden cross did not occur until 7/11/04. So this very well may be 2003 again.
• BX has been on my screen, but my attention was called back to it by another trader last evening. It caught nice support off the 50ma and saw a bullish engulfing pattern the next session. Appears to be in a cup with handle pattern as well. Buy point on this one is 15.30 with volume.
• PTEN was another one talked about. This one looks like it's finished dancing with it's 23.6% line at 14.49. That level has become support now. With the rig count starting to creep up again this one could start moving soon.
• MGM looks to have a buy point on the weekly chart from a perceived cup with handle pattern. 14.25 - 14.35 is the buy point.
• WMS has a buy point in a high channel at 44.50 - 44.90.
• WYN has a channel set up. 16.50 - 16.60 with volume is the buy point.
• AOI could see a powerful cross over soon with the 50ma crossing upward through the 86ma.
• WCRX is shaping a six week cup without handle pattern. Buy point is 23.04.
• KFN needs to get through it's 86ma on the weekly chart before it can move higher.
• AMX was raised to a buy by a few firms yesterday putting a target price of 50 to 53 on it. Something I learned in looking at this is that T owns 8% of this one.