TCM Notes : 5/14/09

• IBD has changed the market outlook to uptrend under pressure. Dow, SP500, and NYSE composite all saw distribution days Wednesday. Nasdaq avoided a distribution day as the volume was not higher than Tuesday. So the tally as it stands now : 5 for Dow, 4 for SP500 and Nasdaq, and 2 for NYSE. 3 to 5 in a few weeks is not a good sign, and with that they lowered their outlook to under pressure. We got into the 9 and 20dmas on many indices and their components today. The retrace is on as I noted in my twitter feed today. Doug Kass was on Squawk Box saying that he is net short at the moment, but he doesn't think we'll get a retest of the "generational lows" he proclaimed in March. More so he thinks a 10% correction is in order which would translate into 20% pullbacks for most equities. On most of the issues I'm looking at a 50% retracement would still correspond with support levels found at the 50 and 86dmas. We shall see.
• Jim Simons' Renaissance might have contributed to some of those 90% up days in early April as they were apparently too skewed to the short side. To have money with Jim you've done something right in the world. I think his compounded annual return is 40% or so. However, based on today's Renfund call; performance is struggling so far this year. April / YTDSeries A:Onshore: -9.38% / -17.31%Offshore: -9.47% / -17.61% Series B:Onshore: -9.25% / -16.86%Offshore: -9.35% / -17.17% Series C:Onshore: -8.64% / -16.95%Offshore: -8.79% / -17.25% Series D:Onshore: -8.33% / -16.86%Offshore: -8.51% / -17.17% Returns are for continuing investors. I suspect these folks will be just fine as they were wealthy to start out, and have become filthy rich under Jim's quant empire. Never feel sorry for a rich man, so the saying goes.
• "Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not." - John Mauldin
• WRLD : Citron.com issued part 2 of their report on this one Wednesday. I think their target is ZERO which is quite the norm for what they go after. Their report is in the shared items section.
• SAC Capital has gone in for 5.2% of TRA. TRA is resisting the hostile bid from CF who is also trying to fend off AGU itself. Consolidation is the theme in the fertilizer space. POT still remains the highest on the food chain.....pun intended.