TCM Notes : 5/5/09

• Traders are throwing darts now! With many equities nearing or closing above their 200dma risk is being accepted again by fund managers and prop traders alike. Yesterday's notes still apply.
• XHB closed above the 200dma as pending home sales ticked up 3.2%. Many of the home builders that make up this etf are nearing or closing above their 200dma.
• AAII is showing 36.09% Bullish, 20.20% Neutral, and 43.61% Bearish. When bullish sentiment reaches 40% or better I will be more concerned. For now it looks as though there are still some bears to squeeze.
• BX, FIG, and KFN are still performing. KFN did a 30% move into the 85% I'm expecting. Looking for it to play catchup with the others and strike it's 200dma at 3.63. FIG closed above it's 200dma.
• I must admit I messed up not mentioning KOL sooner. My thinking was coal was not ready to run and I thought it would revisit 15 again. Well apparently a call out of GS today for some coal names along with fresh fund interest has put coal in play now. KOL saw heavy volume as it neared it's 200dma today. ACI, BTU, MEE (conviction buy from GS), YZC, ANR, CLF,PCX, and others are running. Even JOYG is seeing strength. Many of KOL's components have not reached their 200dmas yet. As they do it should continue to push KOL to the upside. KOL has moving average support underneath it now. http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=tvtoday&clipSRC=http%3A%2F%2Fvideo-static.clipsyndicate.com%2Fcs-video%2Fvol2%2F2009%2F5%2F4%2F58%2F351%2F2ffb73ba-0c6b-46ab-87c5-7d1c28d4981b.flv
• ELN was flagged today for unusual options activity. The May 7 calls were being snapped up. Neuroscience is the field in which they play. Biotech has been the target for takeovers as of late. Target for ELN is 9 to 12$ based on daily/ weekly resistance levels.
• Towards the close yesterday we got an additional goose higher when AIG said they would need no new capital. Yes they lost money still, but signs that the black hole may be closing was encouraging to many. I'm not saying AIG and AVF are investable here, but their outlooks may be turning some.
• YTEC got the volume needed to close above it's 200dma Monday. LFT is now #5 in the IBD 100 which tracks top growth stocks.
• FXI closed above the 200dma today. Many think this is the best barometer on China shares, but truth be told it's more tilted towards Hong Kong listings.
• INTC closed above it's 200dma on a daily chart today after MS raised their target to 19.
• CENX is seeing call buying in May and June at the 7.50 strike. This is causing a rush of volume into the stock. If we can get through 7.50 that would put 17 into play. And possibly 24.
• UYG closed above it's 86dma Monday. XLF is about 2$ away from it's 200dma. Stress Test results on Thursday. As of now rumors say 10 of the 19 need capital.
• A point of hesitation for me now is the fact that you can throw a dart and find a winner at this point. Usually when you see even the worst of the worst rallying hard with all the quality stocks it marks a top in speculative euphoria. We're not going to try to pick a top based on that, but we will be aware that it's taking place.
• As predicted the number of "Sell in May?.....No Way!" articles are starting to hit a fevered pitch. Not sure what to make of it. With the SP500 now positive for the year Uptick Fever may just melt the brains and potentially the wallets of some of these market commentators.