TCM Notes : 5/18/09

• It seems that two days came off the distribution count for indices. IBD dropped April 14 and April 22 from the count. This puts the Dow and Nasdaq back to 3, and the SP500 and NYSE composite go down to 2. The market outlook did not change though and remains as uptrend under pressure. We're still looking at our retracement levels for support.
• Barron's cover story focused back on Treasuries again this weekend. Our TBT play was singled out again, but if one wanted more juice on this play TYO and TMV off 3x leverage on the 10yr and 30yr. These are new and are still lacking the volume of TBT, and have yet to form a major chart formation. Barron's is essentially looking for the yield on the 30yr to get to 5+% and the 10yr to reach 7.15% in the next year or so.
• SemGroup is said to be coming back as a public company from chapter 11. Wouldn't it be funny if Goldman and JPM brought them back to market? You'll recall it was them opening up their books to the private equity guys that showed their weak cash position on their oil shorts in early 2008. The orchestrated squeeze to 147 wiped them out completely. As soon as Barclays took over their positions Goldman and JPM backed off, and then everyone went net short together. It's the stuff movies are made of.
• Slow research weekend. It was enough just getting caught up on my reading. More to come as the week develops.
• Weekly pivots for SPY, UYG, and SSO are : 89.66, 3.97, and 24.81.