TCM Notes : 7/6/09

• All the themes we are watching are still in play this week, and even gaining momentum. As I type oil is down 2+$ to the 64ish level. ERY is going to gap higher again, and it seems my 29 target may be here sooner rather than later. Concerns about demand are shifting back into the forefront.
• The Dollar is strong this morning as risk is being repriced in the equities market. This will further push commodities lower today magnifying recent weakness.
• The Goldman Sachs trading code theft story should be widely covered today. In actual trading action I wouldn't be surprised to see security software firms trade higher. MFE is in play already as a takeover target, but 42.53-.57 will be a critical area of resistance to overcome in order to keep the move going higher. SYMC and ARST should see some action. ARST is starred in my notes as is was an IBD100 member this weekend and it deals directly with enterprise security management. I can't wait to find out who the firm is in Chicago that the "spy" was going to work for. And who's server in London received the data? If it comes back to Citadel that would be the stuff of great fiction novels (or movies.) However, with the state of the world now who needs fiction?! We've got everyday life to keep us entertained and on our toes!
• Just remember if you find yourself swept up in the mania of the crowd in the next few weeks and things don't seem clear. Buy 735-745 on the SP500 if it shows itself. That would complete an inverted head and shoulders pattern.