TCM Notes : 7/30/09

• Well we were dead on the money in our ERY play as the crude oil inventories showed a build of 5.1m barrels. We gapped up and ran, but I didn't cash out the position. I will say I screwed up with this one because it's not 100% correlated to the futures contract. Much like DUG it has exposure to the actual oil companies ie: integrated, service sectors. I should have gone with SCO, but I got wrapped up in the whole triple beta thing. SCO was up almost 13% as it doubled the move seen in oil. Lesson learned. While earnings will still support a bearish tone in the energy names, and ERY should go higher still, my aim was to purely short oil. Trading 63.50 in oil now in the overnight session up .15. It could have a bit of a rebound, but if it gets up to 65 I expect it to be sold with vigor again.
• OCN continues to move higher up 14% for us now. Haven't added to it, but a dip to the 20dma or 50dma would cause me to add. More than likely it will continue to stretch out these averages going into earnings, and then a final thrust before pulling back. We shall see.
• CBG is in a clear uptrend as defined by my moving averages. They are "stacked" as I say. Meaning the order is 9, 20, 50, 86, 150, and 200dma. That's when you have support beneath an equity.
• Consensus on the SP500 is calling for a breakout upward from the flag formation. 1000 is the obvious target.