TCM Notes : 8/3/09

• Welcome to August's trading. Let's get after it this month! I'm looking for a final push higher going into Friday's jobs report. And then we may see a sharp reversal. A correction if you will. It's healthy, and it will provide for even better risk/reward set ups. The urge to chase is showing up in the futures this morning as the /ES marches to 995 on it's way to the fabeled 1000 level.
• My focus at the open today is CNB. It's an event day for them as they had critical news come out in the after hours Friday and traded down 11%. I will be looking for it to make a low in the first 80 minutes of trading, and then will be looking for a retracement trade. A 23.6% retracement from the morning low is the most likely scenario. 50% is probable. My view is you'll see panic sellers and then some analysts will circulate their "opinions/rumors" around to the hedge hogs and trading desks and a rally from the lows will ensue. This for me will be a one day event. You could push it to a two day event, but the risk profile in my opinion increases with that. Looking for volume north of 26m. The FED has given them until August 21st to get their Tier 1 up. FDIC takes banks over on Fridays and Saturdays, so if they make it to the open there should be wild action all week. Think CIT when they had the incredible two trading days when their news first broke. TRADE THE EVENT!
• Dude, I got a Dell! Ordered a new Inspiron 15 as the deal was just too compelling to pass up. For a little extra I walked it up to the t6500 chip, 4mb cache, intel 5100 n card, and a HD 1600x900 true lite screen. 583$ tax and total. Versus models for 499$ this one blows them away. 9.25% tax in TN, so that was 49$ of it. Sale ends 8/6/09 @6am. Without upgrades 399$.
• Keep an eye on the relationship between SCO / UUP and UCO / UDN. First pair is oil down / dollar up. Second pair is oil up / dollar down. Oil through 70.50 at the moment. Looking for a push to perhaps 73-75. This one will reverse hard on job numbers too, so watch it closely. Trailing stop took us out of ERY Thursday morning (to which it's tweeted on the right) on that sharp reversal back up.
• XLF and UYG are shaping up into potential up trending environments as their moving average structures are beginning to offer support to the pattern. Looking to add on any considerable weakness.
• OCN still holding as the earnings date is Thursday 8/6. Looking to be a seller on a wide range candle.