TCM Notes : 8/14/09

• This is a post market note. These guys are still buying the dips as a persistent bid stays in the market. However, there is some divergence as new 20 day highs continue to come in lower as well as leadership names showing relative weakness. Oil had been showing me that it was running into resistance at 72, but the fear of a break out kept me out. The 8.8% move on SCO today was a slap in the face as we were flat in the name. In retrospect there was no reason to not be in with a protective stop at 15.38. Trade and learn I suppose. The way a survey of 250 people on "consumer confidence/sentiment" can make a market break to the downside shows me that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the minds of those that have been chasing this market. We just need to be vigilant here and place our buys at important moving average support levels to insure the best risk/reward.
• Of note to me was today's close in UYG. The 50 and 200dmas are now equal at 4.24. The golden cross is coming. We could probably see something similar to the cross that happened in the SPY when it sold off further after the golden cross. So the timing may be intricate, but the overall trend will be in BUY mode after the cross materializes.
• CISG is another breakout stock I am tracking. It broke out of a bull pennant yesterday on heavy volume of 1.2m. Today it pulled back sharply albeit on less than half of Thursday's volume. Will be an interesting one to follow as it reports eps on 8/26. This one fits the profile of a powerful breakout candidate. I took my eyes off of it as it worked things out in the pennant. Not having a price/volume alert in above the trend line left me unaware of what was happening yesterday. To me it's the first signs of really big institutional money coming in. And those are the guys/gals that push stocks materially higher. Stay tuned in to CISG.
• It was a lazy week for me as far as trading is concerned due to some new strategies I'm working on. I have a tendency to try to rationalize every move I see instead of trading the moving averages and volume as they are happening. Watched a really great interview on google video with Dan Zanger last night. I already traded this way, but need to refocus efforts on really staying focused within that strategy.