TCM Notes : 8/6/09

• A distribution day was handed out to the 3 main indices Wednesday as volume increased on a downside day. Most interesting to me is the relative performance of the financials. UYG looks to have air above it up to 6.60. This time stretch we are seeing in the moving averages is further aiding in flipping these markets into a longer term upward trend. At the moment I think there is some rotation out of tech into financials going on. Tech has been performing and most already had full exposure to it, but had shied away from financials for the obvious reasons. As overbought as financials are it's surprising to see them push on, but indicators be damned in this tape. Moving averages and Price/Volume are the focus with indicators serving in a confirmatory role.
• Oil continues to grind higher. I'm patiently waiting for a blow off type move to the upside, so that I may deploy SCO. The dollar continues to remain weak, but depending on what comes out of the ECB and BOE today it could catch a bid. SCO/UUP ~ UCO/UDN
• 84% of the SP500 trading over their 20dma. Looking at some of the better performing stocks from the IBD 200 composite I'm seeing some short term pausing action on many charts. Just a pause though, as there is too much support underneath us now.