TCM Notes : 8/5/09

• Another session of late day gains. Financials were strong today, and all in all things are trending quite nicely. SP500 is up 12% since the golden cross (50dma crossing up through the 200dma.) March 12th was the follow through day for the start of a new bull (according to IBD's methodology.) I'm reading stories now of Bears who made fantastic windfalls last fall and winter. Only to have given it all back pressing a macroeconomic view that has been fully discounted for in the global markets. And now saying that all they need is one more break to 935 so they can get some back. I mean I can't make this stuff up! A market that rallies on the absolute worst kinds of news is a market that cannot be shorted. Not to mention the moving averages are stacking up and trending from the bottom left to the upper right. Who needs jobs? Right? Pullbacks are welcome and support can be found in the moving averages.
• OCN was sold Tuesday morning @13.68 above the 20dma as that was my trailing stop. And quite frankly I hate it when these companies report 2 days early and at the crack of dawn. And then they announce a 250m$ stock sale too. Dilution this early in the morning?!? Sold to you buddy. I'll book the 10.7% profit. It got down and tested it's 50dma to finally bounce into the close. It could test it's 86dma as the 50dma has been tested several times lately. Too many times and it will eventually break. With the secondary looming, and the reluctance of participants in the Affordable Home programs I can't even hold this one overnight on the best of technical set ups. Perhaps after the water settles.
• Looking to the energy pits for some action today as the CFTC has another hearing today and some big names will be on hand. Already the WSJ reports that John Arnold of Centarus (5B energy fund, ex-Enron trader, biggest spec in Nymex natty gas futures) will say that the pension funds need to be shown the exits in this market. Also he's talking about having a cash market seperate from the physical hedgers. Energy inventories are also due out at 9:30am. A draw of 1.2m was reported by API, but another build could be in the cards. Traders will be waiting for the number. Whichever way it breaks on the number is the way the market will trade the remainder of the day. SCO/UCO are the vehicles to play.