TCM Notes : 8/12/09

• Distribution struck the indexes Tuesday as selling volume picked up heading into today's FOMC announcement. I have a couple of scenarios I've envisioned as to today's trading, but the way things are the market could break in either direction at the moment. The most critical thing will be the stance the Fed takes on it's Treasury program. Perhaps this statement could be such that it causes pause in equities and bonds? We'll know at 1:15pm, and that's what I'll be waiting for.
• Another thing I'm waiting for is the 4.60-4.80 level in UYG to pick up a little bit more. There is also a golden cross setting up in this one as the moving averages work themselves back into a bullish up trending structure.
• Oil backing down off 70 is what I was looking for, but it didn't break that level with much authority. This leads me to believe that it may still have another push higher before another significant correction. SCO will be deployed for oil shorts.