TCM Notes : 6/16/09

• Monday gave us distribution across the indices. IBD has the count at 2 for the Dow, SP500, and Nasdaq. While it occurred in lower than average volume it was still higher than Friday's. They have moved their market outlook to uptrend under pressure. The 20dma came in to provide support today, but could potentially fail and give way to longer duration moving averages and Fibonacci levels. 894 and 851 may be the levels ultimately tested in the SP500 if the market continues to roll over. Obama's speech Wednesday has the markets spooked, so we may very well see some continuation today.
• OCN near it's 50dma may offer a nice entry point before the next earnings report. The stock was featured in IBD's daily stock analysis last week. Mutual fund ownership is at 60 funds up from 38 a year ago.
• XLU saw 30k Jan 2010 30 calls bought for $1. UPW is another way to capture this play with leverage.
• ERY ended up hitting my target even though I was wrong about the election. King Dollar flexed up some on Monday doing the heavy lifting for the short oil trade. I may have to revisit this trade as it's heavily weighted in integrated producers and service companies. DUG showed continuation as well.