TCM Notes : 6/17/09

• Tuesday gave us another day of distribution across the indices bringing the the total to 3 for the Dow, SP500, and Nasdaq. Closes at or beneath the 20dma lend more credence to the fact that we are in the anticipated correction. Isn't it funny how when we get what we want we don't want it anymore? Such is life. Embrace the opportunity, but do it wisely. Depending on how the moving average structures play out will determine whether we see a 38% retracement, or a 50% retracement. What I'm looking for now to get short into the pullback is failure to reclaim the 9 and 20dma back to the upside. So if we bounce back above the 20dma today and then fail at the 9dma and settle beneath it my conviction levels for a pullback into the 850 SP500 level will increase. A crossover of the 9dma through the 20dma to the downside will also increase the odds of a 50% retracement, and potentially alter the short term trend in such a manner as to embolden the bears once again.
• UYG has violated it's trend line from the March lows and has closed beneath it for the past several sessions. It also violated the 23.6% Fib line again today and closed beneath it. Next level to watch is the 38.2% fib level. Although a 9dma downward crossover of the 20dma would make buying here even riskier.
• Things are getting tricky again and that's a good thing. Why? Because confusion is a harbinger of opportunities to come. So get your watch list ready and identify your buy levels. We may just get a second chance at this thing yet.