TCM Notes : 6/2/09

• SP500 reclaimed the 200sma Monday. The Dow is getting there. Looking for the 8500 level to potentially become support. We'll see about that though. Volume proponents point to lower levels from Friday, but you know what? Mr. Market doesn't care. The bulk of the moving averages are beneath us and providing support. Fund managers are chasing performance now and momentum is starting to develop. And the AAII survey still shows too many bears. So the dips are to be bought, and those talking about scary sounding economic probabilities are to be ignored. It was more than priced in on the 6 month overshoot to the downside. When I hear some yokel say, "Credit - D - fault - swap" in an ignorant but know it all manner...after the fact mind you.....I shake my head now and say to myself "this IS a bull market now!"
• UYG poked it's head up over the 150sma today only to settle a few pennies beneath. XLF is closing in on it's 200sma.
• The levels of doubt and fear still in the retail investor's mind are going to ill serve them yet again. If history is any guide they will not fully engage back in the market until we are back at the highs. Knowing this fact fund managers are taking stock at the ask aggressively and putting it away in order to sell it back to these nice folks at a higher price. Such is life.
• Now everything still isn't roses, but my point is if you are waiting for that moment you will be too late. And value will have passed you by. Test the waters and use a trailing stop. If the downtrend reasserts itself you'll be back on the sidelines with cash for the next opportunity.