TCM Notes : 6/19/09

• Quadruple Witching today. Volume should pick up. The final few minutes of Thursday's session found me with an order ticket open on SDS with a bid right at the 20dma (55.88.) I hesitated for a number of reasons. The main one being I think tomorrow could offer the "gap n' crap" trade which could offer a better entry. So I'll wait for the open. Another reason is the SPY has not had the 9dma cross down through the 20dma yet. Not to mention it's 200dma is offering support underneath along with a 23.6% retracement line. On top of that there is a golden cross looming on the chart that could materialize in 2-3 more sessions. I've shared an article that covers a strategy of buying the golden cross. I'll be looking to buy the very moment this condition is triggered regardless of the noise that day in the market. I could see this happening next week as the 104 billion in Treasury auctions coupled with a FOMC meeting provides ample catalysts for a sharp move.
• The charts on DUG and ERY are almost identical the last 6 sessions. And as one would expect DIG and ERX are exhibiting the same similarities. XLE of course looks like the ultra longs, so it will be the proxy as far as picking which juiced up pairs to deploy.
• I'm highly skeptical of the moves seen in the healthcare names : XLV, CVH, UNH, AET, CAH, WLP, HUM, etc. Some floor traders were quoted in the media as saying their fund clients think it's just a trade. Well it's working as this sector is the top performer this week so far. Looking back Obama's speech Monday was the capitulation event for the trade. And the big moves came today as the House looks like they will scrap the 1T bill they were thinking about marking up. 1T would only benefit 16m people which is not acceptable. So the HMOs get a hall pass until around July 4th when more hair brained legislation will be kicked around again.
• XLU still fighting resistance at it's 200dma, but the action was a little stronger at that level into the close. UPW gets you levered up 2x, but the liquidity in this one is dismal as are the spreads. The big money is focused on XLU and it's components.
• Signed up for some Twitter applications. Not sure how useful they will be, but we'll know soon enough. StockTwits is embeded on the right.