TCM Notes : 6/30/09

• End of the quarter trades will be settled today, and then we can be on with the business of the 3rd Quarter. Rotation has occurred towards health care and utilities. It's showing in the XLV and XLU. These laggards could be the leaders for the quarter (and they have golden crosses in their near futures.) My current thinking goes : "What carried us here will hold us, but what lagged will soon lead." Telecoms may very well be an ideal play as yields have become attractive again along with the chance for significant price appreciation ie: T. The major indices continue to chop within their ranges offering up the likely hood of an upper range test....think 950 again for SP500. This correction may very well be one of time rather than price as we chop in a range for months. However, that was also the thinking last summer right before the world almost got sucked into a financial black hole. As I just got done telling someone. I'm seeing a lot of bullish charts, but the macro back drop is still terrible. It usually comes out in the charts first though.
• XLF closed above it's 200sma Monday. UYG closing in on 4 is putting many options participants in the July 4 calls in the money.
• OCN has seen some volume recently and has been pushing on it's 52wk highs. I don't really want to see it break out before the earnings are released, and that won't be until August. So this one could fall back into the flag formation for a bit longer. This "pinned" action could shake out some short term money, but the long term money will be soaking up these shares waiting for the earnings report. A major run into the news will let me know the news has been leaked and to be out before the report.
• MSFT should be bought on meaningful corrections going forward from here. $30 target prices coming out of the wood works Monday. INTC is setting up for a move into the 18s as well.