TCM Notes : 4/24/09

• "Commercial-property loans, including construction and development, account for 22% of American bank loans, up from an average of 14% in the 1980s and 1990s."
• Does Time magazine piece confirm the double top in the VIX from October - November 2008? http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1893085,00.html
• CME reports they saw increased volumes from algorithmic traders versus others. So those that don't believe how much power these quants can wield. The proof is in the volumes. All though they got it handed to them on the March up move. Couldn't happen to a nicer group!
• Coercion to commit securities fraud? Why that's our plan to instill confidence!!! Seriously though you may have heard about this. Ken Lewis wanted the Merrill deal rescinded. M.A.C. denied! Andrew Cuomo is heading down a path he may soon regret. The way this administration is going he may find himself up in Washington being asked to keep quiet. When I was throwing out comparisons of Paulson's tactics to those of J.P. Morgan it seems I was dead on. Bernanke was involved but has invoked the bank examination privilege. Now there's talk of indictments for Lewis, Paulson, and Bernanke. That's the type of noise that doesn't instill too much confidence. More than enough to come. Read Mish's piece on the shared items section.
• IMF looking for a first half recovery in 2010 as long as there is resumption in credit flows. Looking for a 1.3% reduction in 2009. 1.9% expansion in 2010.
• First time in 60 years the global economy has shrank. World trade forecast worst collapse since WWII.
• Treasury is looking to put out 101 billion in bonds next week. Most of which the Fed will be buying with their 300b commitment.
• Drugs and Tech are where all the M&A activity continues to be. Why? Because they have cash, and growth. And that's what all this is about. Cash and Growth.
• Correction on distribution days. 3 for Dow, 2 for S&P500, and 1 for nasdaq.
• And for those that like watching video on their phone. STAR (mentioned the other day) reported their quarter after the close and the stock is trading higher by 10% in the after hours. IBD has this one as a cup with handle setup with a 17.85 buy point. Traded 17.50 in the after hours. We'll see if it can break out on high volume today. Usually these little "hot" IBD stocks that are this price go to 23...then 28.....then 30+ and then you get a major correction. It is up more than 100% from it's lows, so be very careful if you trade this one.