TCM, LLC: TCM Notes : 4/13/09

Trough numbers could be shaping up in GDP, Steel/Scrap, autos, and potentially residential RE. Commercial RE still has a ways to go though.

Perfectly elastic supply curve / Deflation is still a concern / Velocity is down 18% YoY / Makes the Fed impotent

Using Theta to sell options as it pertains to the time decay and the value of the option.

Individual stocks are the inefficiency in the market as pointed out by Laszlo Birinyi. GE and BAC come to mind as they are up sharply from their lows.

Gary Gensler in the CFTC.......look for more speculative disruptions within key commodity markets as speculation continues in this new "asset class."

AIG financial products factoid : 2.7 Trillion of swaps and other positions / 50,000 outstanding trades / 2000 counterparties / 450 employees / 6 offices around the world

A long followed idea that could be ripe going forward : IT for Chinese banks. LFT and YTEC. LFT has just broken a downtrend and is making new 52wk highs. YTEC off it's lows but still near them. Seeing as LFT has broke out a pairs trade of : Short LFT and Long YTEC could prove to be a disaster. Both Chinese companies and you must be skeptical of their accounting. Both offer beta of 1.32. Long both could be the way to play this space. Keep in mind they've rallied sharply off the lows.

Since the VIX is a function of premiums paid could one assert that the VIX remains high due to the low barriers to entry coupled with a speculative fervor in the "poor" man's market? VIX double topped at 80. Sellers of out of the money puts have been the big winners all year.

Brain Drain on Wall St. continues as some of the highest profile managers have left to start their own boutiques. eg: Byron D. Trott ~ BDT Capital Partners..... he left GS.

Ipo CYOU continues to move higher on less and less volume. While it's hard to pick the top just know that all new issues pullback and form a base of consolidation at some point.

EMC investor call on new information storage device 8.30am et. Could be a sell the news event as EMC is extended above key moving averages. While a scalp could be in order keep in mind the daily chart is above all key averages....even though extended.

AXP broke out above the 86dma, 20dma crossed up through the 50dma. These now become support levels.

TRE is a short off the Barron's piece. I think the Apr 2.50 Puts / Jul 2.50 Puts / and the Oct 2.50 Puts are going to fly today. Of course shorting the stock outright could make sense. Since the head promotor is also the main force in the stock it could be a tough one to trade. Should be interesting. Sounds like a pump and dump stock.

Same can be said for BBY ~ PC vs Mac ads. In house financing, but they show cash buys in the commercials. Does this speak to consumers saving money to buy fairly priced goods?

TCM, LLC