TCM Notes : 4/22/09

• So Geithner says "most have adequate capital" and then the "Geithner Goose" of the market ensues. That's fine, but now the news tonight is that the Fed is favoring "securities based" big banks in the stress test. And regional banks are seen to be the ones who are going to be in trouble as they have a higher percentage of loans. Loans that continue to come under the non-performing category. RF today said they have 1.6b non-performing. Loss provisions continue higher, and we still have details about the test coming Friday. Results May 4. Volatility will continue. Also, I read that every $1 short these banks are on capital they have to shrink lending by 8 to $12.
• ORCL broke through the 19.45 level, so we'll call it a triple top breakout and flip to a long bias. I didn't realize that the deal is about strengthening their SQL language. Now they have IBM scrambling with rumors of a hookup with SAP are now surfacing. When I'm wrong I'll admit it, so ORCL is not a short. I forgot Larry Ellison is a student of the Art of War. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL
• Same can be said about DNDN. This thing had a 50% gap up and has boxed out the 8 to 16 range. Now it's locked between 16 to 22 with the time stretch in the 9dma closing in another 1.20 to 15.20. So 16 will be clear support soon, and as the averages catch up the market could keep in trading in a channel of 16 to 22.
• Bob Shireman is the new deputy under secretary of the Department of Education. He is the founder of the Institute for College Access & Success. They seek to study the negative implications of rising student debt levels. This is what the shorts have been positioning for and Credit Suisse cut the ratings on APOL, ESI, and LINC today. Regulation to come. Margins to compress. And potential criminal conduct to be reviewed by some for accounting shenanigans.
• SEA ~ FAN ~ TAN. No this is not a children's book line. It's the lazy approach to Shipping, Wind energy, and Solar energy plays. All starting to see improving bases and the beginnings of trend changes to the upside.
• DAG vs. AGA : Soft commodities here. DAG gets you long .... AGA gets you short. DAG gets the nod here as we head into the beginning of the growing season. These are double beta notes.
• OCN picked by Treasury for foreclosure mitigation.