Monday, April 13, 2009

SSO setups

Cashing out at 21.98 and 20.90 was profitable, but proved to be premature. The resistance I was seeing was broken through, but divergences in price and volume are still to be noted. That said, I want to be a buyer for another long trade as it pulls back into moving average support. Most notably the 20dma. The move was so sharp on Thursday that Monday's pivots are a long way from Thursday's pivots. Most notably 20.93. This was the pivot from Thursday. Usually the prior sessions pivot is touched in the next session, but it would take a big move to make this happen as that number resides under S3 in Monday's pivots. This level is close to the 20dma at 20.52 on a daily. So there's a support zone to work with.

Another level of support was the 21.14 to 21.17 level which corresponds to Monday's S3 level of 21.17. This would be a good set up if you see some volume come in at those levels. Other than that assuming we don't make a higher high this week the current retracement from the most recent low to high stands at : 18.50 for a 50% and 19.50 for a 38.2% retrace. These levels occur in a zone where the 50dma currently resides. So as long as the volume does not pick up to distribution levels coming into these zones they can be seen as another area to potentially put on a long trade with the upside target being the last high of 22.90.

Earnings reports start getting more teeth this week as major financials GS, JPM, and C report. So let's stay nimble as bullish sentiment starts to potentially reach a momentum / volume vacuum high. Behavioral economics being what it is today though don't be surprised if the good feelings continue on due to the "confidence spin" showing up in everything. Leading us to the potential of a low volume mark up that sustains itself a little longer despite itself.A close under 19.82 the 50dma would cause a resumption to the major trend down, and would trigger a stop on a 20.93 buy.

20.91 is also the 9dma on a Weekly chart now. Upside target on a weekly would be the 20dma at 24.32.