TCM Notes : 4/29/09

• Today is a FOMC statement day. This is not the non-event that some traders are thinking. Of course they aren't going to change their 0-25bp quantitative easing stance, but they may just expand that balance sheet some more for an acronym of their liking. And they could ratchet up their monetization of the Treasury department with a few more 100 billion here and there. So those long TBT or short TLT may be in for quite the move tomorrow following the statement. Remember what happened last time? Perhaps those 3x beta treasury etfs will get some volume off the announcement. Those are not seeing the sponsorship I thought they would, but it's still early.
• Amongst all this are earnings announcements from a broad swath of companies. Too many industries to name, but Commercial RE is going to be in play tomorrow for sure. http://www.earnings.com/earning.asp?date=20090429&client=cb
• DNDN : Did you see the reindeer games played in this one yesterday? This is why I choose not to play in biotech. It's a crap shoot. Obviously there was a rumor floated that ran contrary to the actual release of the Provenge data. This resulted in the stock breaking from 24 to 8 in about 40 seconds! Even a stop loss wouldn't have saved you. Stock was halted. Thought I saw a 22 cross in the after hours, but I'm not sure if it was legit. We'll see today what happens. These are the types of plays that keep traders focused on the action, because they prove that anything can happen in a market dominated by fear and greed. And sometimes fundamental data.
• VRTX saw heavy call buying at the May 35 strike. Rumor is JNJ is sniffing around. Caveat emptor.
• CBG : my notes say, "is it time yet?" They report today and I'll tune into that call. More than likely the answer is no, but some of the big names are getting off successful secondaries. Like I said earlier, today we'll be hearing from PLD, BXP, BDN, AVB, and several others.
• Arlen Specter is a disgraceful old fool. A populist chaser! Doesn't want to ruin his track record. I find that laughable since his career path was to be a lowly bureaucrat! I loathe all of these types.
• IBM is giving the nod to BRCD as far as switches for servers are concerned. CSCO getting into the server market has made IBM uncomfortable, so they will not aid CSCO by buying their gear for their stuff. HP is mad about it too. This benefits JNPR as well as they replace CSCO as a supplier. Would it be wise for CSCO and EMC to merge now? Hmmm.
• STAR saw profit taking on heavier volume after a Cantor Fitzgerald downgrade. The downgrade came b/c of the analyst's 19 price target. My target is the 200dma of 21. And that is just an intermediate target. Demand for wireless data services is not slowing down. My guess is their trading desk didn't have enough of the stock yet.
• I've seen too many articles about the strength in TIPs is signaling inflation. Could be. You know what really signals inflation? Velocity of money. And we still don't have that yet.
• David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund was interviewed and he is still as bearish as one who runs a bear fund can be. He claims it will get worse b/c there was no capitulation that took place, and that retail sellers have not sold all yet due to the recent rally. SP500 at 400 is what he was espousing. Out of all his talking the chart that accompanies his fund displays one gigantic head and shoulders topping formation. And charts while they can trick you for extended periods of time. The truth always emerges at the the most inopportune time. Depending on how you are positioned!
• As of now Uptick Fever still persists. SPY closed Tuesday on it's weekly pivot of 85.57. 88.40 is R1 on a weekly....which would be new highs. Keep that in mind. And perhaps by coincidence SSO and UYG both are only .04 under their weekly pivots. SSO weekly pivot 22.72. UYG weekly pivot 3.35.
• 71% of SP500 stocks are above their 20dma. Big money still pushing and supporting.
• MELI takeover chatter was muted by comments from EBAY via their CC the other day. There's a snippet on that in the shared items to the right.